Buying Points: When It’s Smart (and When It’s a Trap)
Buying Points: Smart Value or Fool’s Gold?
You’ve seen it on every sportsbook:
Favorite -9.5 (-105)
Favorite -8.5 (-125)
Favorite -7.5 (-130)
It’s tempting to think, “If they win by 9, I still cash. Worth a few extra bucks, right?”
Not always.
What Buying Points Really Does
Buying points moves your line in your favor, but it costs you extra vig. When you shift from -9.5 to -8.5, you’re usually paying 20 extra cents (from -105 to -125).
| Odds | Win % Needed |
|---|---|
| -105 | 51.2% |
| -110 | 52.4% |
| -120 | 54.5% |
| -125 | 55.6% |
| -130 | 56.5% |
Break-even win rate by odds line
When It Might Make Sense
Football has “key numbers” — final margins that occur more often because of how points are scored. NFL bettors chase 3 and 7, but in college football, games land on quirky numbers (5, 8, 11, 18).
- You’re crossing a key number (like 3 or 7)
- It’s a low-total game (under ~48 points)
- You’re protecting a parlay or teaser leg
When It’s a Trap
Sportsbooks love when you buy points — it’s their best markup. Let’s say you buy from -9.5 (-105) to -8.5 (-125): That line lands on exactly 9 only about 2.5% of the time. You’re paying 20% more juice for a 2.5% advantage — a negative-EV play.
Schmuckatelli’s Rule of Thumb
If it doesn’t cross a key number, don’t buy it.
Stick to your edge. Our model already accounts for true outcome distribution — buying points is emotional hedging, not statistical advantage.
Bottom Line
The sportsbook sells peace of mind.
We sell probability.
If your system has a favorite at -12 and the market says -9.5, you don’t need insurance — you already have the edge.
