About Schmuckatelli Analytics
Built for the long game. Backed by the numbers.
Our Origin Story
Schmuckatelli Analytics started with a simple question: what would happen if we treated college football like an engineering problem? Not vibes. Not narratives. A system. A framework. Inputs, modeling, and disciplined outputs.
The result is a clean, evidence-based approach that converts power ratings, schedule context, and market behavior into clear decisions: play it or pass. No chest-thumping, no “can’t lose” promises—just a smarter way to bet the board.
What We Believe
- Long-term edge over short-term heat. Think blue-chip stock, not day-trader FOMO.
- Discipline beats impulse. We let the model pick its spots, then we live with the math.
- Transparency matters. Weekly performance is published, good or bad.
- Keep it simple. If a number doesn’t improve decisions, it doesn’t make the page.
1) Collect
Multiple independent rating sources, our in-house power number, home-field adjustments, and real line movement. We normalize, standardize, and remove noise.
2) Model
Ratings become projected spreads and cover probabilities. We calibrate variance with in-season data and test the engine weekly against actuals.
3) Gate
We filter for meaningful edges (by size, probability, and price). If a play doesn’t clear the gates, it doesn’t make the sheet.
4) Play
Tiers reflect confidence: Locks, Strong, and Tactical leans. Fewer, better decisions—week after week.
Why This Works
Markets are efficient—until they aren’t. Our model consistently finds value in the ranges where pricing drifts: mid-sized spreads (5–10), conference bias, and overreaction to headlines. We test those edges against results and adjust weights so the system improves as the season matures.
Who We’re For
- Everyday players who want a steady, long-term approach—not a miracle parlay.
- DIY bettors who like to sanity-check their opinion against a disciplined model.
- Data-curious fans who appreciate receipts: weekly records, edges, and line-miss metrics.
Who Is Schmuckatelli?
Joe Schmuckatelli started as a running joke in the Marine Corps—the nameless guy who always ends up in the example, usually doing something wrong. Here, he gets his redemption arc.
Schmuckatelli represents the everyman: not flashy, not perfect on paper, but relentless. The teammate you trust when the chips are down. This system is his comeback story—built for the grinders who know you can’t control luck, but you can control preparation.
He doesn’t beat the market with hype. He beats it with work, discipline, and data.