Recon Intel: The Edge Report
Short, actionable reads that explain the *why* behind our numbers—so you can bet like a pro, not a parrot.
Buying Points: Smart Value or Fool’s Gold?
When (and when not) to pay extra vig to move a spread. Key numbers, breakevens, and why comfort ≠ edge.
Read brief →What Line Movement Really Tells You
UP vs DOWN vs SAME from open to close: how often it matters—and when the “steam” is just noise.
Read brief →How We Build Cover Probabilities
From power ratings → projected spread → z-scores. Why sigma matters—and when favorites are under-called.
Read brief →CLV—The Only Receipt That Matters
Beating closing line value isn’t a victory lap—it’s proof your process is sharp. Here’s how we track it.
Read brief →Home-Field Advantage Isn’t One Number
Altitude, travel, and conference quirks. When HFA should be +3—and when it should be more (or less).
Read brief →Key Numbers in CFB Aren’t NFL’s 3 & 7
College totals change the distribution. Why 5, 8, 11 show up—and what it means for your spreads.
Read brief →